A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The cost of living crisis is the biggest short-term risk the world is facing, while the failure of climate mitigation and climate adaptation is the largest long-term concern, the World Economic Forum said on Wednesday. Releasing its annual Global Risks report in London ahead of its Davos summit next week, the WEF also said geopolitical rivalries and inward-looking stances will heighten economic constraints and further exacerbate both short- and long-term risks. The Global Risks 2023 report, drawing on views of over 1,200 experts, policy-makers and industry leaders from across the world, also urged countries to work together to avoid 'resource rivalries'.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Six US Congressmen have written to the Attorney General of the United States expressing concerns over the Department of Justice's indictment of the Adani Group, alleging it jeopardizes relations with India. The letter, signed by Lance Gooden, Pat Fallon, Mike Haridopolos, Brandon Gill, William R Timmmons, and Brian Babin, criticizes the Biden administration's decision to pursue the case, arguing that it has no real injury to US interests and could negatively impact the strategic partnership between the US and India. The Congressmen call for an investigation into the DOJ's conduct and request records pertaining to the case.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
Even a whiff of an incident like the violent 1989 shirt-ripping attack on Krishnamachari Srikkanth by a Karachi spectator would be ruinous. It would set back the ties further, derail an ongoing tournament, and harden Indian attitudes on playing Pakistan anywhere at all, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'If they aim to remain aligned with the public sentiment, as any democratic government should, then they must respond. Why else would the prime minister have cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia? And why would he have instructed the home minister himself to travel to Srinagar to assess the situation firsthand? This suggests that something is indeed being planned. I am quite certain of that, although the exact form it will take remains to be seen.'
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
Novice investors must understand that volatility is an inherent part of equity markets and learn to navigate through such phases.
'Investors with foreign currency-denominated goals, such as foreign education or foreign travel, should go for US equity funds.'
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
All investors should ideally have a 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold. Whether they invest in gold ETFs or SGBs should depend on their investment horizon.
He said that the two nations will have issues in the foreseeable future. However, there are ways of addressing those issues and what happened in 2020 was not the way to address those issues.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
'While I would never wish for anyone to go through what we are, it has brought out the best in us by making each one of us a better version of ourselves.' 'Being courageous, fighting for freedom, taking the burden of responsibility to help each other...' 'I know hundreds and hundreds of examples where Ukrainians are risking their lives for complete strangers and it is only in moments like this that we truly understand what it means to be human.'
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
Challenging the decision of the Biden Administration to investigate the activities of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and his companies, an influential Republican lawmaker on Tuesday said such selective actions risk damaging critical alliance partners.
Another priority in the first 100 days could be the launch of an e-platform -- Trade Connect -- to help exporters connect with stakeholders of international trade.
'It makes sense to have gold in one's portfolio keeping the political and economic risks of 2024 in mind.'
Former National Security Advisor (NSA) Shivshankar Menon has stated that the political dynamics between India and Pakistan have resulted in a "controlled level of hostility" that benefits the ruling elites in both nations. Speaking at the Kerala Literature Festival, Menon described Pakistan as a "brand new state" still grappling with its national identity. He argued that India's foreign policy towards Pakistan is influenced by its domestic politics, resulting in an uneasy equilibrium characterized by a "controlled level of hostility." Menon also questioned the concept of a multipolar world, stating that the current global order is merely "confused." He emphasized that the United States remains the world's true military hegemon, while other nations, including China, are regional powers. Menon further argued that there is no binding international order, leading to a state of "between orders." He highlighted the absence of definitive international agreements on crucial issues in recent decades.
The meltdown in Dalal Street that wiped out investor wealth to the tune of 44 trillion in 2025 also seems to be having a ripple effect on the country's vibrant automobile retail sales.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
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